Seasonal Influenza Prevention and Control Progress in Latin America and the Caribbean in the Context of the Global Influenza Strategy and the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Each year in Latin America and the Caribbean, seasonal influenza is associated with an estimated 36,500 respiratory deaths and 400,000 hospitalizations. Since the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, the Region has made significant advances in the prevention and control of seasonal influenza, including improved surveillance systems, burden estimates, and vaccination of at-risk groups. The Global Influenza Strategy 2019-2030 provides a framework to strengthen these advances. Against the backdrop of this new framework, the University of Colorado convened in October 2020 its Immunization Advisory Group of Experts to review and discuss current surveillance, prevention, and control strategies for seasonal influenza in Latin America and the Caribbean, also in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This review identified five areas for action and made recommendations specific to each area. The Region should continue its efforts to strengthen surveillance and impact evaluations. Existing data on disease burden, seasonality patterns, and vaccination effectiveness should be used to inform decision-making at the country level as well as advocacy efforts for programmatic resources. Regional and country strategic plans should be prepared and include specific targets for 2030. Existing investments in influenza prevention and control, including for immunization programs, should be optimized. Finally, regional partnerships, such as the regional networks for syndromic surveillance and vaccine effectiveness evaluation (SARInet and REVELAC-i), should continue to play a critical role in continuous learning and standardization by sharing experiences and best practices among countries.

Global production capacity of seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccines in 2019.

Vaccines will be an important element in mitigating the impact of an influenza pandemic. While research towards developing universal influenza vaccines is ongoing, the current strategy for vaccine supply in a pandemic relies on seasonal influenza vaccine production to be switched over to pandemic vaccines. Understanding how much vaccine could be produced, in which regions of the world and in what timeframe is critical to informing influenza pandemic preparedness. Through the Global Action Plan for Influenza Vaccines, 2006-2016, WHO promoted an increase in vaccine production capacity and monitors the landscape through periodically surveying influenza vaccine manufacturers. This study compares global capacity for production of influenza vaccines in 2019 with estimates from previous surveys; provides an overview of countries with established production facilities; presents vaccine production by type and manufacturing process; and discusses limitations to these estimates. Results of the current survey show that estimated annual seasonal influenza vaccine production capacity changed little since 2015 increasing from 1.47 billion to 1.48 billion doses with potential maximum annual influenza pandemic vaccine production capacity increasing from 6.37 billion to 8.31 billion doses. However, this figure should be interpreted with caution as it presents a best-case scenario with several assumptions which may impact supply. Further, pandemic vaccines would not be immediately available and could take four to six months for first supplies with several more months needed to reach maximum capacity. A moderate-case scenario is also presented of 4.15 billion doses of pandemic vaccine in 12 months. It is important to note that two doses of pandemic vaccine are likely to be required to elicit an adequate immune response. Continued efforts are needed to ensure the sustainability of this production and to conduct research for vaccines that are faster to produce and more broadly protective taking into account lessons learned from COVID-19 vaccine development.

Priority allocation of pandemic influenza vaccines in Australia - Recommendations of 3 community juries.

BACKGROUND: Pandemic planning has historically been oriented to respond to an influenza virus, with vaccination strategy being a key focus. As the current COVID-19 pandemic plays out, the Australian government is closely monitoring progress towards development of SARS-CoV2 vaccines as a definitive intervention. However, as in any pandemic, initial supply will likely be exceeded by demand due to limited manufacturing output. METHODS: We convened community juries in three Australian locations in 2019 to assess public acceptability and perceived legitimacy of influenza pandemic vaccination distribution strategies. Preparatory work included literature reviews on pandemic vaccine allocation strategies and on vaccine allocation ethics, and simulation modelling studies. We assumed vaccine would be provided to predefined priority groups. Jurors were then asked to recommend one of two strategies for distributing remaining early doses of vaccine: directly vaccinate people at higher risk of adverse outcomes from influenza; or indirectly protect the general population by vaccinating primary school students, who are most likely to spread infection. RESULTS: Thirty-four participants of diverse backgrounds and ages were recruited through random digit dialling and topic-blinded social media advertising. Juries heard evidence and arguments supporting different vaccine distribution strategies, and questioned expert presenters. All three community juries supported prioritising school children for influenza vaccination (aiming for indirect protection), one by 10-2 majority and two by consensus. Justifications included that indirect protection benefits more people and is likely to be more publicly acceptable. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of an influenza pandemic, informed citizens were not opposed to prioritising groups at higher risks of adverse outcomes, but if resources and epidemiological conditions allow, achieving population benefits should be a strategic priority. These insights may inform future SARS-CoV-2 vaccination strategies.

An inventory-location optimization model for equitable influenza vaccine distribution in developing countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The addition of other respiratory illnesses such as flu could cripple the healthcare system during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. An annual seasonal influenza vaccine is the best way to help protect against flu. Fears of coronavirus have intensified the shortage of influenza shots in developing countries that hope to vaccinate many populations to reduce stress on their health services. We present an inventory-location mixed-integer linear programming model for equitable influenza vaccine distribution in developing countries during the pandemic. The proposed model utilizes an equitable objective function to distribute vaccines to critical healthcare providers and first responders, elderly, pregnant women, and those with underlying health conditions. We present a case study in a developing country to exhibit efficacy and demonstrate the optimization model's applicability.

Seasonal influenza vaccination during a pandemic.

In the Northern Hemisphere, the persistence or reemergence of coronavirus circulation into the 2020-2021 influenza season threatens to overwhelm health-care resources and systems and increase mortality and morbidity. Data from Australia show that stay-at-home policies have reduced both influenza and coronavirus cases early in the season, thus "flattening the curve." However, influenza vaccination is critical to ensure the reduction in co-infection. Several policies, such as vaccination strategies to accommodate physical distancing measures, change population recommendations, and timing and location of vaccination have been implemented to increase influenza vaccine uptake during the pandemic. This commentary explores those policies.